Why you should not HODL your Bitcoin and why everyone tell you to do the opposite
You probably already heard about this famous word with the unique wrong order. So you might have developed some own opinion on this topic, either as a supporter or a critical thinker, which doesn’t matter at the moment.
If you heard of Bitcoin before, but not of HODL, here is a short explanation: The creator with the pseudonym “Gamekyuubi” founded the word by accident, once he misspelled his post with “I AM HODLING” after a short-term crash in 2013. His tweet went viral afterwards and people on Twitter, Youtube, etc. began to adopt. So whenever someone refuses to sell his coins and avoid a loss on their net worth, they just hold their position with the hope, that the coin will recover one day to the same price level or even higher → someone is hodling.
Let’s get straight to the point and mention the Pro’s and Con’s, but first of all remember: Only invest what you can afford to lose !
+ you don’t worry about short-term price actions
+ requires a lot less research work, you can focus on your job and free time
+ you don’t lose money until you realize your loss
- you might have to wait a long period of time without the guarantee, that the price will recover again
- you “lose” money by not realizing your profits → long downward of the price can lead to bad moods or even depression
- in worst case you are gambling with money you will need in the future
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes” — Mark Twain
We know from previous price actions in history, that Bitcoin likes to follow the scheme of price increase after each Halving Event, which is like every 4-year. The last one was on May 11, 2020. Here you can find some interesting chart models. More precisely said: The block reward get’s cut in half, so it get’s harder to collect more Bitcoins after every Halving Event.
This is important to know, because it’s the main reason and drive for the majority of people, who believe in their HODL strategy. And of course, because it’s limited to a supply of 21-million Bitcoins at all.
As good as it sounds on paper, there is still a reason to realize your wins or at least take some profits on the way up. The most simple steps are the easiest one on paper, but in real life emotions mostly drive actions. Some people will tell you to HODL, because they probably experienced some loses too and want you to feel the same pain. Some kind of weird jealous, I guess.
Short Disclaimer: It’s important to know that NOBODY will ever know the exact Price for the next All-Time-High, everyone who tells you the opposite, is a scammer or a troll.
The feeling after you made some life-changing money, but didn’t realize them, is worse than just losing it straight.
I’m part of class 2017 in this crypto space and I already made many mistakes in the past. I can confirm this even for people, who are more experienced than me. You better learn from others mistakes or you chose your own experience, but for the last case remember: That’s your own choice. So don’t blame the technology or the community for (not) taking actions. Even if you believe in further price increase and continuing downwards (bull market → bear market → consolidation phase → repetition), why not take the chance and buy lower at the next time? If you want to understand more about different market cycles and to time your ideal entries and exits, I highly recommend to check out these chart models:
- Stock-To-Flow Model by Plan B
- * Consolidation phase comparison for different Bitcoin cycles by therationalroot
- * Rainbow Chart by Holger (rohmeo_de)
- * Different On-Chain-Metrics by glassnode
- * Different On-Chain-Metrics by cryptoquant
- * More Charts and Metrics mostly for Futures Trading by bybt
These are my main sources for my research. It’s mostly free and worth a look for everyone.